Special Edition: Tony Awards Predictions
It's the last midnight.
We’ve got a little over 24 hours
to go before the Tony Awards 2024, and it feels like the theatre community is buzzing ahead of the big night at Lincoln Center. Whether that’s in a good way (Stereophonic getting a last-minute invite to perform during the live broadcast) or a not-so-good way (select theatre media outlets being “shut out” of red carpet coverage), one thing’s for sure: people are talking.
For myself, on a lazy Saturday afternoon, I thought it’d be fun to test my skills, make some predictions on some of the key awards, and be able to compare against tomorrow’s results to see how my knowledge really stacks up to The Broadway League’s opinions of the 2023-2024 season.
Just for kicks - I’ll be including a “SHOULD WIN” and a “WILL WIN” section for each category.
I’ve got another surprise coming tomorrow regarding my own behind the scenes moment at the Tonys, but since I am unfortunately superstitious - I’ll save that for now and share more once it’s all said and done :)
Fun Fact: Tomorrow’s performance will be taking place in the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center. Referred to by many as “the jewelry box,” it was designed by architect Philip Johnson especially for the New York City Ballet, and is meant to resemble the sparkle of a jewelry box’s interior, with a “tiny ballerina” spinning in its center.
The Nominations
Best Play
Will Win: “Stereophonic”
Should Win: “Mary Jane”
Sue me, I was the only person in New York who didn’t love “Stereophonic”. But with a record-breaking 13 nominations, there’s no way this show doesn’t walk away with an easy win. I grieve for “Mary Jane’s” beautiful, grounded performances and heart wrenching script! Maybe in another season this could’ve been different…
Best Musical
Will Win: ????
Should Win: “The Outsiders”
This is one of the tightest races for Best Musical I can think of in recent memory. While I was extremely taken with “The Outsiders” (that rumble scene was worth the price of admission and then some - I don’t think I’ll ever forget it), I’ve seen significant buzz around “Illinoise” (which I’ve already publicly admitted my fondness for!), “Suffs” (which I generally liked, and have been listening to a few tracks from the newly released cast album), and “Hell’s Kitchen” (which has commercial success behind it and…that’s about it). It’s going to be a tough call tomorrow, and definitely a reason to stay up until the end of the broadcast!
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Will Win: Sarah Paulson
Should Win: Rachel McAdams
Once again I’m screaming into the void that this should’ve been Rachel’s year, but unfortunately, this is Paulson and Lange’s race - and in the end, I think it’ll go to Paulson. Special shoutout for Amy Ryan in “Doubt” who really delivered some firepower and isn’t getting talked about enough.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Will Win: William Jackson Harper
Should Win: William Jackson Harper
I don’t care what anyone says, I am putting all my chips on the board for Harper and his performance in this show. Call me wrong if I end up being wrong!!
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Will Win: Maryann Plunkett
Should Win: Kelli O’Hara
I’ve simply been seeing too much buzz about Plunkett, who gave an emotional (but sometimes, IMO, overbearing) performance in “The Notebook” for her to lose this one. But O’Hara, in a beautiful and devastating performance as a naive young woman turned cynical alcoholic - deserves this win.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Will Win: Jonathan Groff
Should Win: Jonathan Groff
He made a famously unlikeable character (which sunk previous attempts to stage “Merrily”) someone you want to root for during the entire show. Flowers for him!!!
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Will Win: Kara Young
Should Win: Kara Young
As the first Black actress to ever have been nominated for a Tony three seasons in a row, Young is groundbreaking in both a historical sense, as well as in the performance sense - is there any role she can’t absolutely crush?!
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Will Win: Someone from Stereophonic, undoubtedly, since they nominated everyone in the supporting category and made room for no one else 🙄
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Will Win: ???
Should Win: Kecia Lewis/Lindsay Mendez
Another extremely tight race! I truly can’t decide between these performances - loved them both. Special shoutout for Amber Iman from “Lempicka” who I also adored and hope to see onstage again soon.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Will Win: Daniel Radcliffe
Should Win: Daniel Radcliffe
See above comments on Groff. Radcliffe gave the best performance of “Franklin Shepard, Inc” that’s maybe ever been done (you can listen here), and for that, I think the Tony is safely his.
Best Choreography
Will Win: “Illinoise”
Should Win: “Illinoise”
Is water wet? Fun to see Peck win in the theatre that gave him his start, too.
Best Orchestrations
Will Win: “Illinoise”
Should Win: “Illinoise”
Rinse and repeat. Deserves it!
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Will Win: “Stereophonic”
Should Win: “Days of Wine and Roses”
I think the Tony voters are going to go with the “progressive” option here (giving the score award to a play - gasp!!), but I loved Guettel’s score for “Wine and Roses” and wish it had gotten more attention.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Will Win: “Here Lies Love”
Should Win: “Here Lies Love”
They completely tore out the guts of the Broadway Theatre for this incredible set, and you’re telling me they won’t win the Tony?! Get out of town.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Will Win: Illinoise
Should Win: Illinoise
I think I’m going to remember the lighting choices in this show forever. Truly. Just true artwork.
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Will Win: “The Outsiders”
Should Win: “The Outsiders”
Sound design in the rumble alone should guarantee them a Tony.
The Takeaway
Some will win, some will lose, and tomorrow, we’ll all be watching with our popcorn bowls and bated breath to see who’ll actually walk away with some hardware.
Have Tony Award predictions of your own? I’d love to hear about them. Comment below or message me on Instagram and let’s discuss!
